gre作文要求：argument提纲（8）

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."

A、首先怀疑该调查样本的数量以及样本选择的随机性。如果该样本基数很小，那么即使有80%的人，那么其绝对数也是很小的;样本选择的随机性不够，就不能够代表整个消费者人群。另外，该调查是否采用了暗示性问题(loaded questions)?

B、ODI公司的视频含有较多的脂肪和胆固醇，但并不意味着该公司的食品就卖得不好。食品的销售不但和它的营养有关，还和食品的口感、包装有关。消费者可能会因为该食品口感好而选择继续购买。

C、作者并没有说明ODI公司是否也在销售低脂肪和胆固醇的食品。可能ODI公司也正在着力推广该类健康食品，因此ODI公司的销售额不一定会下降。

16.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.

"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does. If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."

A、L地区能够花费能多的钱在教育上以及医疗项目能够是能多人受益，并不一定是由于L地区的彩票。可能L地区本身的经济就比较发达，政府在教育和医疗上的拨款数额比I地区大，还可能是L地区政府的教育和医疗的重视度比较高。即使L地区在教育和医疗上的进步是由于彩票，也是过去两年的情况，并不能够保证今后还能继续发展下去。

B、即使L地区能够继续这样发展下去，I地区采用同样的方法后，也不一定能够成功。因为两个地区存在着很多不同，例如I地区的居民不太喜欢购买彩票，或者说I地区的居民收入不太高，他们不太会在彩票上投入资金。另外，I地区实行彩票后，可能会带来一些负面影响，例如有些居民可能会沉溺于彩票当中，从而耽误了正常的工作和生活。

C、文中的调查是否具有说服力值得商榷，作者并没有交待该调查的样本基数以及样本是否随机化。如果样本基数不够或者样本选择缺乏随机性，则该调查不具有说服力。另外，该调查只在Capital City进行，并不能够代表I地区。即使该调查具有说服力，I地区平均人均花费$50在赌博上，I地区的居民也未必会将这些钱用于购买彩票。赌博和彩票属于两个不同的概念。