5.The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
A、作者的所有推理都是建立在一开始的假设上的，如果该假设不成立，则作者其他所有推理都将不成立，而在未来风湿病患者增长40 million到60 million作者并没有给出可以让人信服的证据，因此该假设很可能不成立。
B、即使该假设成立，B公司也不一定能够抓到高利润。根据经济学常识，利润等于销售额减去成本。如果B公司开发以及生产X药的成本很高，那么即使销售不错，也可能不盈利，甚至亏本。
C、对于P公司的X(Xylan)药，临床研究的样本数太少，只有10个病人，而且这10个病人都是严重的风湿病，以此该样本并不能够代表所有的风湿病患者。
D、即使能够代表所有的风湿病患者，也存在着利润问题，高成本的话就不一定能够产生利润了。
6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
A、首先，该全国范围的调查样本选取是否足够随机，如果不随机，则调查结果就不能够得出人均花费$1,000在爵士音乐娱乐上的结论。
B、即使该调查足够随机，那也是全国范围的调查结论，对于M地区并不一定成立。M地区的居民花费在爵士音乐娱乐上的钱不足$1,000。正如作者所说，M地区的居民喜欢“Jazz Nightly”的广播节目，因此该地区的居民可能更喜欢收听免费的广播，而不是去俱乐部等地方进行消费。
C、即使M地区的居民也年均花费$1,000在爵士娱乐上，也不一定会去M地区的C Note爵士音乐俱乐部。目前的俱乐部虽然远，但并不代表人们不去。可能该俱乐部环境比较好，爵士音乐纯正，人们喜欢去那里。
D、即使人们去C Note，也不一定能够保证C Note能赚钱。利润等于收入减去成本，而作者忽视了成本中一个很重要且很大的成本——品牌成本。C Note创立之初，一定会需要大笔的资金进行品牌宣传。
E、另外，有名的爵士艺人住在M地区，并不代表他们会在M地区进行表演。100,000参加M地区的爵士欢庆，并不能够说明爵士乐在M地区很受欢迎，人们去那里可能是其他原因，例如追星。即使说明人们喜欢爵士乐，那也是去年夏天了，并不表示今后也是如此。
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